During a golden sunset in Memphis in May, a former oil and gas worker pointed a thermal imaging camera at a large AI hub to uncover a planetary threat that was invisible. Operating without environmental safeguards, the natural gas generators fueling an enormous AI computing clusters were releasing undetectable emissions into the Tennessee sky.
“I was completely stunned,” commented the observer, who estimates the facility was releasing more methane than a major utility station. “An absolutely staggering level of contamination.”
Around the same time, the resulting chatbot was dominating news feeds, promoting conspiracy theories and generating misleading content. Observers have cited generated images of offensive characters as an illustration of what natural gas was being consumed to produce. “What useful purpose does this serve?”
Wilson is not alone in voicing this concern. Researchers are observing the AI boom with concern as it harms the natural world with greenhouse gases and the digital world with dangers ranging from health misinformation to AI-generated abusive content.
A number of analysts fear datacentres may derail the move to a sustainable system, adding an unnecessary hurdle to the difficult goal of preventing the planet from heating beyond critical thresholds. A different view is hopeful about the energy costs, arguing they seem minor not just to polluting industries, but also to the technology’s power to transform our world.
The Soaring Energy Appetite
While a sustainability researcher ran models for an international energy agency, she spent minimal effort worrying about the emissions impact of computers. Transport, agriculture and buildings were among the major issues consuming the carbon budget.
But in one European nation, the power needs of data processing has reached levels that are hard to overlook. Datacentres guzzle one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are forecast to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The rapid expansion of these chip-filled warehouses has outpaced the electricity grid's capacity, leading to restrictions on new grid connections.
“The path of enormous, exponential growth is what is so worrying,” said Daly. “It's unclear whether this is a real outlier or a precursor of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a lesson to heed.”
Globally, datacentres consume just 1% of the world’s electricity but may soon demand much more. Their portion of electricity demand in major economies is estimated to more than double by 2035. Some demand is being met through long-term agreements to buy green electricity, while some tech firms have secured contracts to use nuclear energy.
But for the near future, fossil fuels are set to be the primary source. In some regions, datacentres are located in areas reliant on polluting power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for expanding fossil fuel use. “This idea that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – this is inadequate,” said Daly. “Since when there’s a massive driver of energy demand that wants to grow, it will exploit these underused polluting infrastructure.”
Weighing the Climate Impact of a Interaction
Does employing chatbots to draft emails endanger the planet? Tech companies have been reluctant to provide transparent metrics on their AI energy footprints, but rough calculations hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, increasing significantly for more complex tasks. One CEO recently stated a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These figures are minimal compared to activities such as air travel, eating meat, or driving a car. Nevertheless, critics worry about the sheer scale of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the eagerness with which companies have embedded it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of background services is expected to add to the background hum.
“The issue that troubles me is that we’re rolling out this technology in such a way that we lack a clear understanding of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The prevailing mindset is on the hypothesis that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of proactively addressing it.”
The Possible for Positive Impact
What if AI could offset its energy debts by saving carbon in other parts of the economy? That is the thesis put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to manage renewable energy, identify sustainable food sources, improve battery composition and guide behavior toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can speed up the deployment of those clean technologies by basically advancing their development along the curve of development and use,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The estimated emission cuts carry significant caveats – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and secondary impacts may undercut the gains. But instances already exist. Some companies report AI has helped reduce energy for temperature control in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has improved wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to spot issues.
Because other sectors are so high-emission, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a small fraction to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “For energy generation we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “However other sectors are not there yet.”
The Flip Side: Boosting Fossil Fuels
Environmentalists are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s transformative potential. The fossil fuel industry is also a keen implementer. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost available oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its operational footprint, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a gap between digital insights and tangible reductions.
“Such technology is employed as an pretext to avoid regulation,” said one campaigner. “Watching methane from space is not halting methane.”
Perhaps even more concerning than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create very successful advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of driving demand. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could make decisions on a customer’s behalf.
“The common discussion is really focused on this incomplete analysis between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is risky to ignore the negative use cases.”
Appeals for Caution and Rules
A number of experts are calling to slow down, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have proposed a moratorium on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Some advocates have called to guide the technology to do good. A few countries have started to reference AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to create a fund to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as high-risk. They also want investors to consider enabled emissions when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the responsible deployment of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a principled manner, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are built for sustainability.
“I choose to be optimistic, but I still believe that AI can have a positive impact in terms of fighting the climate crisis – creating the next generation of batteries, monitoring deforestation, predicting hurricanes,” she said. “Numerous good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re generating digital spaces filled with low-value content while datacentres are getting powered by diesel generators.”
