Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
